[4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. Read More Map If a state or district performed within half a point of the nation in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. the closest we can figure how democratic a place is IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. Cook Partisan Voting Index The main feature of the Report is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) . IL-06, MN-02: Midwestern middle-class suburban districts that are increasingly willing to vote Dem at the top of the ticket but are still unwilling to part with conservative GOPers downticket. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. [4] As of 2022[update], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. There are actually two PVI's calculated: one for each state, and a separate for each Congressional district. The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. [4]. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. The PVI assigns a numeric score to each U.S. congressional district based on how it performed in the previous election compared to the country as a whole. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. These districts have little in common. Political statistical exponent. and Academic Affairs and
In short, as electoral realities have changed, the Cook PVI must change with them. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. Oklahoma has five congressional districts ranging from R+10 to R+27. I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Below is our 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI) score for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method. Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. ", 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, The Republican Electoral College Advantage, Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI). The same thing with Cooks PVI. States that have strong connections to others states without sharing a border? (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. More useful is how a partys candidate performs compared to party registration (where applicable). The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. [1] [2] Although the House's pro-GOP skew didn't budge much either way as a result of new maps, the number of competitive seats declined. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. I could only find the Cook PVI ratings on dKosopedia, but I don't think I can mention Daily Kos as an objective source. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. There is no magic bullet, no algorithm which will tell us by plugging in data which district can be swung with a little effort. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. But maybe I have completely the wrong end of the stick. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. I really don't understand that stereotype that the rich ALL universally vote for the Republicans. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. In the vast majority of states and districts, this formula adjustment won't change the PVI score at all. Of course, my preference is an Excel sheet listing vote totals by office (prez, gov and CD) side-by-side over the last several cycles broken down by county. (And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). [1][2][a] The only way I can see to avoid this is to have the letter (R or D) always indicate which party won the district and the number indicate by how much. The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. Stanford Law SchoolView posts , Sudler Family Professor
The boldface sentences confirm my understanding of how PVI works. 1984 and 1988 were the last times the electorate was so tilted and that, of course, was for the GOP. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two Presidential elections. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. Several states in this region, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, only have one congressional district effectively making the PVI ranking statewide. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law
i guess i can see the appeal for cook and maybe others in that the 00 and 04 national elections were close to 50-50, therefore you almost removed a complex variable and you can just say if they voted 60% for GOP in 00 and 04 then they are GOP +20. Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. From Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Cook Partisan Voting Index is the unit used to calculate how much a particular place leans towards each party. Lets hear your thoughts! The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. And in the South particularly, the partisan trend may be Democratic at the state and local level and Repub at the national level. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. [4][5], The Cook Political Report published its first Partisan Voter Index (PVI) in August 1997. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In any event, for the 2010 cycle the basic flaw with SVI and PVI is each concentrates exclusively on presidential results. Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. If the site only uses SVI, then we are basing our read of the partisan breakdown on a single cycle in which the GOP ticket was headed by a guy their base did not much care for and did not have anywhere close to an even playing field in financial resources as the economy crumbled in spectacular fashion under a sitting president of his party. The composition of those new districts will likely change the PVI rating and could impact how those states are represented in Congress moving forward. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate. 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